STO-1: Reliable quantification of climatic, hydrological and atmospheric stressors: YADES will employ State-of-the-Art numerical modelling tools for selected climate scenarios in the targeted historic areas (Region of Sterea Ellada focusing on the archaeological area of Delphi, the area of Amfikleia and Amfissa in Greece, the city of Termoli in Italy, and the city of Trebinje in Bosnia), covering processes and interactions from short to the long-term (10-60 years). This data will be used to estimate quantitative indicators for the potential impacts of CC on historic areas at a local level, including also aspects related to their aesthetics due to long-term exposure of the structures on air pollution and microclimatic conditions. Both changes in the average climate and increase of the intensity and the frequency of extreme climatic/weather events will be considered. A Land Surface model will be used to account for the impact of climate and atmospheric composition on soil surface parameters (e.g., the presence of liquid water), thereby quantifying the structural and thermophysical impacts on the structural elements and operation. The high resolution modelling effort will exploit existing sources of climate and air pollution data enriched with existing and available sensor data and enhance their added value through risk indicators for selected “hot-spots” (e.g., foundations, facades of buildings), introducing a risk modelling interface with our resilience assessment platform (as in STO-5).
STO-2: Multi-Hazard modelling will cover single, cotemporaneous (e.g., extreme temperature, humidity, wind, air pollutants) and cascading (mudflow/landslide after rain, etc.) hazards. Inundation maps will be provided for specific catchments by using hydrological modelling for various precipitation capacities, while seismic hazard will be quantified in terms of seismic intensity levels (peak ground acceleration, spectral estimates, and surface faulting deformations) and their spatial/temporal distribution for the historic areas, by using stochastic modelling approaches (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis). YADES aims to provide input for the relevant regulatory framework, (e.g., Eurocode 1), on the load models for climatic actions. Data-based calibration of these models will be done at case study level, and methodologies for evolution of these load models to take into account CC will be proposed.
STO-3: Improved prediction of Structural and Geotechnical (SG) safety risk of the surveyed structures through the use of simulators that exploit monitoring data from various sensors. Along with the expert knowledge of partners specializing on SG engineering and on materials’ deterioration, the YADES’ consortium will assess the current condition of structural, non-structural and content components of characteristic archetype buildings in the historic area. These detailed models will be leveraged to validate simplified surrogate numerical models or reduced-order physical models, achieve accurate pre-event and near-real-time post-event assessment of the impact of the climate pressure and geo-hazards, define related damage/vulnerability functions and capacity thresholds of the aging structure, optimise any reconstruction or retrofitting actions and finally evaluate the response of the structure in the future, for a large number of hazards scenarios with/without the proposed adaptation and mitigation measures.
STO-4: Environmental and material monitoring including state identification and damage diagnosis: novel Computer Vision (CV) and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms will be developed to exploit sensors, such as visible/hyper-/multi-spectral cameras, thermal/infrared/Ultra-Violet sensors, mounted on vehicles and drones to get a precise inspection of the selected CH sites.
Main outcomes will be:
⁕ 3D capturing of wider area, ground based imaging and 3D reconstruction;
⁕ Damage assessment and structure deformation maps (internal/ external walls, facades/roofs and envelopes), surface material classification and degradation analysis and contour diagrams for the temperature profile;
⁕ Novel methodologies for deformation maps, ML-based algorithms for the assessment of land cover changes in the broader area, and overall estimation of the environmental condition of the CH site (big picture: flooding, sea-level rise, levees’ overflows, soil moisture, etc.).
⁕ spatial-temporal 4D (3D plus time) maps assessing the temporal damages of sites and the impact of the climate on its conditions;
⁕ integrated conventional sensors (e.g., environmental and structural) and deployment of low-cost microclimate-stations (wind-speed, air humidity, soil moisture and temperature).
STO-5: Design of a Cultural Heritage Resilience Assessment Platform (CHRAP) and a DecisionSupport-System (DSS), enabling communities’ participation. CHRAP will allow the integration of various analysis, modelling tools and damage/vulnerability functions, hence incorporating information from various sources (literature, surveys, satellite, etc.) with different levels of granularity (building/block/regional level) together with the associated uncertainties. All these tools will be built on a Geographic Information System (GIS), interfaced with existing open-source hazard assessment software (e.g., OpenQuake) and network simulators (e.g., EPANET, traffic simulators), and chained to socioeconomic impact analysis tools to produce both quantitative and qualitative loss estimations (e.g. financial loss estimation, reputation impact, morale impact etc.) in order to develop an end-to-end simulation platform enabling the running of any number of different “what-if” scenarios and offer:
⁕ Comprehensive risk and impact assessment of hazards on the structural/non-structural components, such as stone and masonry walls, sculptures, frescoes, paintings, etc.;
⁕ Testing of various risk management approaches, plans, strategies, countermeasures and adaptations for the selected structures; ⁕ Understanding the sensitivity of system assets, structures, and services to various hazards; ⁕ Understanding interdependency due to cascading events;
⁕ Setting up risk-based response strategies adapted to specific scenarios and defining efficient standard response procedures;
⁕ Assessing and quantifying the overall resilience of the CH area with a holistic quantitative approach;
⁕ Setting up contingencies and prequalified responses for critical supply chain operations and disruption in order to promote end-to-end resiliency,
⁕ Support the community-based participatory environment in the platform for increased CH participation and awareness and build Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) for social media);
⁕ Plan and budget for focused structural rehabilitation efforts of buildings and gauge the effect of associated policies to improve area-wide resilience;
⁕ Introducing local community load balancing models so as to ensure survival of the surrounding residential and business areas;
⁕ Estimating fair insurance rates, pricing CAT-bonds and optimizing their triggers (i.e., the threshold of a third-party verified sensor reading that contractually signals the release of funds) to finance a rapid bounce-back;
⁕ Evaluating the impact over time right after a disruptive event, in order to facilitate faster response and minimize financial losses, and
⁕ Evaluating and assessing the Maximum Acceptable Damage (MAD) that a CH site can afford before being considered as a total loss.
STO-6: Push innovation through the development of an initial research and training network that will focus its activities on the development, effective integration and increased utilisation of existing and the proposed YADES’ innovative technologies and techniques. We also aim to provide researchers and professionals with the opportunity to go beyond the current state-of-the-art in the relevant application domain, through a multidisciplinary and international approach based on a wide spectrum of technological tools and methods that can contribute to a more effective CH resilience and conservation policy. YADES aims to build and enhance the researchers’ and professionals’ network of contacts and, hence, to possibly continue and improve their careers at high profile universities and well-established private enterprises, even after the end of their individual project within YADES.
STO-7: Provision of a Handbook to include:
a) technical information on sustainable reconstruction of historic areas,
b) proper adaptive response strategies for CC and other hazards scenarios,
c) post-disaster reconstruction examples,
d) practical checklists and references to assist practitioners, field-workers, cities and cultural authorities, etc. in better decision making,
e) recovery requirements for various sectors,
f) information on financial tools to mitigate risk, including a novel set of CH-area-specific insurance-linked securities (e.g., CAT-bonds) designed to cover different degrees of extreme CC and non-CC event severity and g) guidelines and techniques to encourage, facilitate, and develop bespoke reciprocal agreements between same type of businesses for timely service recovery.
STO-8: Build up specific complementary and market-oriented skills to allow the European researchers and professionals to face the new challenge in terms of technology development and future services.